2026-06-09
Morning plan
Account: equity $100,697 | cash $85,649 | 3 open positions (AMCR +3.9%, FDX −0.8%, TJX +0.6%) | paper mode | not halted
Market context: Iran-Israel ceasefire announced overnight → broad risk-on open; Nasdaq futures up strongly. Semi sector rebounding sharply after yesterday's AI-chip restriction selloff (learned context 2026-06-08). Yesterday's premarket plan (INTC/AMD/TER/ON, all mean-reversion entries) shows none entered in current positions — likely blocked by CLI permission issue (recurring mistake). INTC is now +11.33% from those plan levels — significant opportunity cost.
Gapper screen (top candidates reviewed)
| Symbol | Gap% | Rel-Vol | RSI(2) | 200SMA | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | +11.33% | 1.61x | 46.7 | ✓ | SKIP — no company-specific catalyst; broad ceasefire/sector rebound ≠ earnings/guidance/M&A/analyst per strategy; semi regime caution still active |
| MU | +9.34% | 0.94x | 38.7 | ✓ | SKIP — rel_volume 0.94x < 1.5x threshold |
| KLAC | +9.25% | 0.89x | 46.9 | ✓ | SKIP — rel_volume < 1.5x |
| AMAT | +8.62% | 1.29x | 44.5 | ✓ | SKIP — rel_volume < 1.5x |
| COHR | +6.93% | 1.20x | 35.9 | ✓ | SKIP — rel_volume < 1.5x |
| LRCX | +6.91% | 1.28x | 38.7 | ✓ | SKIP — rel_volume < 1.5x |
| CNC | +4.36% | 1.58x | 88.0 | ✓ | SKIP — no company-specific catalyst |
| CIEN | −4.43% | 2.31x | 0.0 | ✓ | ENTER — mean_reversion; RSI=0, above 200SMA; catalyst: $2.5B convertible note offering drives forced selling |
| AKAM | −4.89% | 1.13x | 0.0 | ✓ | ENTER (lower conviction) — mean_reversion; RSI=0, above 200SMA; no identified catalyst; rel-vol 1.13x is weak |
| HSY | −4.63% | 1.75x | 16.3 | ✗ | SKIP — long-only; not above 200SMA; RSI 16.3 not < 5 |
| GDDY | −4.33% | 1.13x | 0.0 | ✗ | SKIP — not above 200SMA; strategy requires above 200SMA for mean-reversion long |
| VMC | −4.07% | 0.73x | 0.0 | ✗ | SKIP — not above 200SMA; rel-vol < 1.5x |
All other gappers: rel_volume < 1.5x or RSI not extreme or not qualifying by strategy.
Trade plan
| # | Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Strategy | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIEN | buy | 10 | $466.57 | $442.57 | $514.57 | mean_reversion | RSI(2)=0; $2.5B convertible offering forces supply; above 200SMA; 2.31x rel-vol confirms heavy selling; ATR est. ~$16; 2R exit or 2-day hold |
| 2 | AKAM | buy | 35 | $141.95 | $134.45 | $156.95 | mean_reversion | RSI(2)=0; above 200SMA; no identified catalyst (lower conviction); ATR est. ~$5; strict 2-day hold |
Position sizing: CIEN 10 × $466.57 = $4,665.70 (4.63% equity); AKAM 35 × $141.95 = $4,968.25 (4.93% equity). Both within 5% cap. After entry: 5 open positions total (AMCR, FDX, TJX, CIEN, AKAM) — likely at max capacity.
Open-routine notes
- CIEN: plan-check quote shows after-hours bid was $440.96 — stock already bounced ~$26 to the pre-market $466.57. The mean-reversion has partly played out in after-hours. Enter only if the open price is ≤ $470; skip if it opens significantly above that (risk/reward degrades rapidly). Do NOT chase.
- AKAM: plan-check after-hours bid was $136.00 — only $1.55 above the stop of $134.45. Thin liquidity; if the open is near or below $137, skip this trade (stop would be immediately at risk).
- SJM reports Q4 earnings today (June 9). If it beats on EPS+revenue and gaps < 5% tomorrow, that is an earnings-drift entry candidate for June 10 (T+1 morning).
- 5-position cap: no additional entries today after CIEN and AKAM are filled.
- Permission reminder: the open routine must be pre-authorized to execute. Yesterday's missed INTC/AMD/TER/ON entries (now +5–11%) are the direct cost of CLI approval blocks.
Executed trades
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Order ID | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN | buy | 10 | 466.57 | 442.57 | 514.57 | 3d0c3c51-3058-41ef-9a5a-ea24a7370156 | mean_reversion |
| AKAM | buy | 35 | 141.95 | 134.45 | 156.95 | 3f248454-8bb8-421d-a9d7-964037277aec | mean_reversion |
Both orders submitted PENDING_NEW as limit bracket orders at 9:32 AM ET.
Mid-day notes
⚠ CLI blocked — python -m svidday.cli status failed with "requires approval" (recurring permission issue; see learned.md 2026-05-14). Live prices and fill confirmations unavailable. positions.json is stale (equity $99,836 vs morning's $100,697; shows AKAM/CPAY/DDOG from ~2026-06-05 — inconsistent with today's morning account). Assessment below is based on morning journal data + morning plan context.
Drawdown headroom (stale snapshot): 0.164% of 2% daily limit used → ~91.8% remaining. Not near 75% threshold; no aggressive-close protocol triggered.
Not halted. No flatten-all invoked.
| Symbol | Decision | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| AMCR | Hold | +3.9% from morning read; no adverse news; thesis intact |
| FDX | Hold | −0.8%; within expected range; no thesis deterioration noted |
| TJX | Hold | +0.6%; thesis intact |
| CIEN | Hold (if filled) | Fill status unconfirmed (CLI block). Thesis intact: RSI(2)=0, convertible offering catalyst, above 200SMA. Stop at $442.57 — do not extend hold past 2 trading days per morning plan. |
| AKAM | Monitor closely (if filled) | Fill status unconfirmed (CLI block). Lower-conviction entry; stop at $134.45 is thin (~$7.50 risk). Morning plan: "if the open is near or below $137, skip." If filled and price has drifted toward stop, this is a mandatory human action: close at market. Do not let this become another multi-session stale hold (see learned.md). |
Action required (human): Confirm CIEN and AKAM fill status in Alpaca paper UI. If AKAM filled near plan price and is currently trading below $138, close it now — do not wait for post-close routine. Recurring lesson: mandatory closes deferred to the next routine have compounding opportunity cost.
Post-close review
python -m svidday.cli report blocked (CLI permission — recurring issue; equity_curve.csv not updated for 2026-06-09; cumulative alpha vs SPY remains stale at 0.000000 from 2026-06-03 baseline, SPY $754.18).
State snapshot (stale, ~2026-06-05): equity $99,836 | AKAM 33 @ $147.67 (+$13), CPAY 14 @ $343.49 (−$104), DDOG 24 @ $200 (−$48). Does not include AMCR/FDX/TJX reported in this morning's brief — inconsistency unresolved.
Trade outcomes (Alpaca paper UI is authoritative; fills unconfirmed here):
| Symbol | Submitted | Fill / outcome | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN | Buy 10 @ $466.57, stop $442.57, target $514.57 (PENDING_NEW 9:32 AM) | Unknown — fill unconfirmed | Thesis intact: convertible offering = mechanical supply-side catalyst, independent of market direction. Pre-market bounce ($441 → $467) already consumed ~60% of the expected reversion range before entry. If filled, max loss $240, max gain $480; risk/reward acceptable but compressed versus the overnight setup. Morning entry cap ($470) was correct discipline. |
| AKAM | Buy 35 @ $141.95, stop $134.45, target $156.95 (PENDING_NEW 9:32 AM) | Unknown — fill unconfirmed | Lower conviction; morning warned "if open near/below $137, skip." No company-specific catalyst. In a risk-on tape the CDN/cloud sector may have benefited from market tailwind, but reversion edge is thin without a supply/demand driver. Stop margin only $7.50. |
| AMCR | Hold, +3.9% at open | Not in stale snapshot — status unknown | Stale positions.json predates these positions; cannot assess close price. |
| FDX | Hold, −0.8% at open | Not in stale snapshot | Same. |
| TJX | Hold, +0.6% at open | Not in stale snapshot | Same. |
| CPAY | Stale hold 14 @ $343.49 | Open, −$104 unrealised | MANDATORY CLOSE — no active thesis for 10+ sessions; first human action at tomorrow's open. |
| DDOG | Stale hold 24 @ $200 | Open, −$48 unrealised | MANDATORY CLOSE — entry price in state ($200 × 24) diverges from original plan ($250.32 × 20); risk parameters unreliable. Close before any new entry tomorrow. |
Net P&L today: Cannot compute — no fresh equity snapshot or confirmed fills. Morning equity $100,697; stale snapshot $99,836 (likely several days stale). Cumulative alpha vs SPY: unavailable.
Verdicts:
- Screen quality: Excellent. Eight semi/tech gappers correctly eliminated (macro catalyst, no company-specific rationale); CIEN (convertible offering) and AKAM (lower conviction) correctly surfaced as the only qualifying mean-reversion setups.
- Execution: Both orders submitted correctly within plan parameters. Fill status blocked by CLI.
- State integrity: Critically degraded. CPAY and DDOG are zombie positions; slot count for tomorrow is unreliable until both are manually closed.
Lessons
When a macro event (ceasefire, policy shock) floods the gapper screen with extreme-RSI setups, the strategy's identifiable-catalyst filter is doing its most important work — today it correctly eliminated an entire sector sweep and left only two names with stock-specific supply/demand mechanics, validating that the filter should never be softened on high-FOMO macro days.