Trading journal — 2026-06-10
Morning plan
As-of: 2026-06-10 10:30 ET | Equity: $100,356.21 | Mode: paper
Macro: Trump ordered strikes against Iran pre-market — broad risk-off; S&P 500 futures down; Fear & Greed Index at 33.5 (Fear). Nasdaq −250 pts yesterday. Semi chip-restriction overhang still active.
Open positions: AMCR (+4.58%), FDX (−1.41%), TJX (+3.27%) — 3 slots used.
State divergence flag: state/positions.json shows stale AKAM/CPAY/DDOG; live Alpaca brief shows AMCR/FDX/TJX. Brief is authoritative; positions.json needs reconciliation.
FDX watch: Amazon announced U.S. LTL freight expansion to third-party warehouses — direct competitive threat. FDX −$70.20 unrealized (avg entry $332.50, current $327.82). Open routine: verify FDX against its bracket stop before entering new trades.
Screened: 25 gappers. All gap-continuation candidates rejected (SJM +10.46% — no catalyst in news feed; CARR +5.75% — no catalyst; BLDR/POOL — not above 200SMA). 17 names eliminated by rel_vol < 1.5×. Iran-strikes macro context noted; CIEN and FSLR screened for company-specific or pure-technical signals distinct from the macro sweep.
Trade plan — 2 trades from 25 gappers:
| # | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIEN | mean_reversion | buy | 11 | 439.14 | 415.14 | 487.14 |
| 2 | FSLR | mean_reversion | buy | 19 | 262.25 | 247.25 | 292.25 |
CIEN — RSI(2)=0, above 200SMA, rel_vol=2.57×. Catalyst: $2.5B convertible notes offering driving supply-side mechanical selling (company-specific, pre-dates Iran news). Second consecutive gap-down day; open routine must enter CIEN only once regardless of yesterday fill status. ATR est. $16; stop = entry − 1.5×ATR; 2R target; strict 2-day max hold.
FSLR — RSI(2)=0, above 200SMA. Lower conviction: rel_vol=0.95 (below 1.5× threshold); no company-specific catalyst in news feed (gap may partly reflect Iran risk-off). ATR est. $10; stop = entry − 1.5×ATR; 2R target; 2-day max hold. If Iran-driven energy sector selloff broadens, stop may be hit early.
Executed trades
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Order ID | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN | buy | 11 | 439.14 | 415.14 | 487.14 | 60f9308f-6c35-49a3-8681-151dd7884657 | mean_reversion |
| FSLR | buy | 19 | 262.25 | 247.25 | 292.25 | f7538812-f3eb-4c41-861d-11be86e83224 | mean_reversion |
Mid-day notes
As-of: 2026-06-10 12:30 ET | Equity: $100,119.74 | Mode: paper | Halted: false
Drawdown: 0.38% daily drawdown vs 2.00% limit — 19.1% of daily cap used; 80.9% headroom remaining.
Position decisions:
| Symbol | Action | P&L | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMCR | hold | +$241.65 (+4.88%) | Thesis intact; favorable move; stop tighten v2 TODO |
| CIEN | hold | −$78.98 (−1.64%) | Within bracket ($16.76 above stop $415.14); day 1 of 2-day hold; convertible-offering thesis unchanged |
| FDX | closed | −$156.15 (−3.13%) | Thesis broken — Amazon LTL expansion to third-party warehouses is direct competitive threat; morning plan already flagged; close_submitted confirmed |
| FSLR | hold (bracket active) | −$162.34 (−3.30%) | Close attempted; all 19 shares held in bracket orders (stop $247.25 active, $2.80 below current $250.05); bracket will trigger automatically; low conviction from entry noted |
| TJX | hold | +$236.76 (+4.81%) | Thesis intact; favorable move; stop tighten v2 TODO |
Closes executed: FDX (1 close submitted). FSLR bracket stop at $247.25 is the live exit mechanism — manual close was blocked by Alpaca (shares held_for_orders).
State note: positions.json still shows stale AKAM/CPAY/DDOG from a prior session — needs reconciliation post-close routine.
Post-close review
Data note: python -m svidday.cli report required PowerShell approval that was not granted; state/equity_curve.csv not updated (still shows 2026-06-03 as last row). Post-close analysis based on mid-day snapshot (12:30 ET) and known bracket states. Cumulative alpha vs SPY remains blind.
Equity: Morning $100,356.21 → Mid-day $100,119.74 | Net daily P&L (mid-day): −$236.47 | Cumulative alpha vs SPY: unavailable
Trade outcomes
| Symbol | Type | Outcome | P&L | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX | prior long | Closed (realized) | −$156.15 | Thesis broken (Amazon LTL expansion); correctly flagged in morning plan and exited at mid-day |
| AMCR | prior long | Holding | +$241.65 unrealized | Thesis intact; stop-tighten TODO still open |
| TJX | prior long | Holding | +$236.76 unrealized | Thesis intact; stop-tighten TODO still open |
| CIEN | mean_reversion | Holding (day 1 of 2) | −$78.98 unrealized | Within bracket ($24 headroom to stop); convertible-offering thesis unchanged; must close by EOD tomorrow |
| FSLR | mean_reversion | Bracket active / likely stopped | est. −$285 if stopped at $247.25 | Mid-day $250.05 was $2.80 above stop in risk-off macro; no company-specific catalyst; final fill unconfirmed without CLI |
Verdict
FDX: Close was correct and timely — morning plan had already identified the thesis break (Amazon LTL); execution at mid-day followed through cleanly.
CIEN: Day 1 holds up. Convertible-offering catalyst is company-specific and pre-dates the Iran macro news; this is exactly the kind of signal the strategy targets. Hold through day 2 per plan.
FSLR: The entry was explicitly below the strategy filter (rel_vol 0.95 vs 1.5× required) and the morning plan noted "lower conviction" yet still submitted. In a broad macro risk-off environment with no company-specific catalyst, the only thing moving FSLR was the same force hitting every name on the screen. The 1.5× rel_vol filter exists to screen for seller exhaustion — below that threshold, there is no edge, only market direction.
AMCR / TJX: Both profitable holders; stop-tighten action is outstanding and should be first on tomorrow's open routine before any new entries.
Lessons
Entering a mean-reversion trade below the 1.5× rel_vol threshold on a macro-driven gap day is not a marginal quality reduction — it removes the only edge (seller exhaustion) the strategy depends on and substitutes undifferentiated macro risk that the stop will price correctly.