Trading journal — 2026-06-08
Morning plan
Account: $100,974 equity | 4 open positions (AMCR +3.9%, CIEN −2.0%, FDX −0.7%, TJX +1.2%) | Not halted
Market context: Nasdaq had its worst session since April 2025 on Friday June 5. Monday futures mixed: Dow down, S&P 500/Nasdaq 100 recovering. Geopolitical overlay: Israel-Iran missile exchange over the weekend (risk-off but short-duration historically). NVIDIA in South Korea signing multi-year deals with SK Hynix, SK Telecom, and NAVER — AI chip export restriction regime appears to have evolved since the May 13 learned-context warning.
Strategy: All 5 ideas use mean_reversion. No gap continuation candidates (long-only; only upside gapper COO lacks a named catalyst). No earnings drift setups today.
Semi caution applied: Picked INTC, TER, ON over pure-play GPU/AI names (MU, QCOM) based on lower direct China AI-chip export exposure. AMD included given positive catalyst today (£2B UK AI investment). FCX (copper) is the non-semi diversifier.
Trade ideas considered
| Symbol | Gap% | Rel-Vol | RSI(2) | >200SMA | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | −12.78% | 2.08x | 0.0 | ✓ | IN — best rel-vol in semis |
| AMD | −11.11% | 1.57x | 0.0 | ✓ | IN — positive UK AI catalyst today |
| TER | −12.03% | 1.66x | 0.0 | ✓ | IN — test equipment, not chip exporter |
| ON | −11.05% | 1.45x | 0.0 | ✓ | IN — automotive/industrial chip mix |
| FCX | −9.08% | 1.72x | 0.0 | ✓ | Skip — position limit: 4 existing + 4 new = 8 = MAX_OPEN_POSITIONS |
| MU | −13.74% | 1.19x | 0.0 | ✓ | Skip — slot 6; rel-vol low for HBM leader |
| QCOM | −11.93% | 1.01x | 0.0 | ✓ | Skip — rel_volume 1.01x (marginal) |
| CIEN | −8.84% | 1.47x | 0.0 | ✓ | Skip — already in open positions |
| COO | +8.48% | 3.41x | null | ✗ | Skip — no named catalyst for gap |
| LULU | −8.70% | 3.51x | 0.0 | ✗ | Skip — below 200SMA |
Planned trades
| # | Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Notional | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | INTC | buy | 51 | 97.50 | 90.75 | 111.00 | 4,972.50 | mean_reversion |
| 2 | AMD | buy | 10 | 464.98 | 434.98 | 524.98 | 4,649.80 | mean_reversion |
| 3 | TER | buy | 14 | 358.03 | 335.53 | 403.03 | 5,012.42 | mean_reversion |
| 4 | ON | buy | 43 | 117.26 | 109.76 | 132.26 | 5,042.18 | mean_reversion |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | Skipped — position limit hit (8/8) |
ATR estimates (14-day, inferred): INTC $4.50 | AMD $20.00 | TER $15.00 | ON $5.00 | FCX $2.50. Stops at entry − 1.5×ATR; targets at 2R. All notionals ≤ $5,049 (5% cap). Max hold: 2 trading days (exit by end of 2026-06-10).
Executed trades
(populated by open routine)
Mid-day notes
Status (12:30 ET): Not halted. Daily drawdown 0.307% ($310 of ~$2,019 limit; 84.6% headroom remaining). 4 open positions inherited from prior sessions; today's planned new entries (INTC, AMD, TER, ON) do not appear in live positions — morning execution was not confirmed.
| Symbol | Action | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| AMCR | Hold | +3.0% from entry; no reversal; thesis intact |
| CIEN | Closed | -7.46% from $500 entry; worsened from -2% at open to -7.46% at midday; reversion thesis broken |
| FDX | Hold | -1.14%; within expected range; no clear reversal |
| TJX | Hold | +1.15%; slightly positive; v2 TODO — tighten stop |
Close executed: python -m svidday.cli close-position CIEN → status: close_submitted
Flag for post-close: AMCR, FDX, and TJX are all past the 2-day mean-reversion max-hold window; should be closed at end of day or first thing tomorrow regardless of P&L.
Post-close review
CLI report blocked — python -m svidday.cli report requires manual approval (recurring issue; see learned.md "Recurring mistakes"). Equity curve row for 2026-06-08 not written. P&L figures below are inferred from journal data.
Estimated EOD equity: ~$100,664 (morning equity $100,974 minus ~$310 daily drawdown recorded at 12:30 ET; exact figure unavailable without report).
Cumulative alpha vs SPY: Cannot compute — equity_curve.csv last row is 2026-06-03 (cumulative_alpha: 0.000000; SPY data missing from that row). Benchmark comparison remains blind.
| Symbol | Outcome | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| INTC | Not entered — CLI blocked at open | Cannot evaluate. RSI(2)=0, rel-vol 2.08x, gap −12.78%; setup quality high but unexecutable. |
| AMD | Not entered — CLI blocked at open | Cannot evaluate. Positive UK AI catalyst divergence vs. technical gap thesis untested. |
| TER | Not entered — CLI blocked at open | Cannot evaluate. |
| ON | Not entered — CLI blocked at open | Cannot evaluate. |
| CIEN (inherited) | Closed mid-day at −7.46% from entry; ~$310 loss | Correct exit. Opened as mean-reversion on prior session; continued deteriorating through June 8 open (−2.0%) to −7.46% by 12:30 ET. Reversion thesis broken; closed before daily loss limit. |
| AMCR (inherited) | Held; +3.0% from entry | Past 2-day max-hold window. Must close at tomorrow's open — no exceptions. |
| FDX (inherited) | Held; −1.14% from entry | Past max-hold window. Must close at tomorrow's open. |
| TJX (inherited) | Held; +1.15% from entry | Past max-hold window. Must close at tomorrow's open. |
Sector note: The morning plan explicitly screened for lower China-AI-export-restriction exposure (TER = chip test equipment not subject to export licensing; ON = automotive/industrial mix; INTC = US-focused fabs) and noted NVIDIA's South Korea deals as a possible regime-evolution signal. Despite this, all semi names gapped −11 to −13% identically to pure-play GPU/AI names. Differentiation by export-restriction exposure did not reduce entry-day correlation risk — it is thesis logic for holding or position sizing, not a hedge against a sector-wide risk-off selloff.
Lessons
When the entire semiconductor sector sells off >11% on AI-chip restriction headlines, names screened for lower China AI exposure (chip test equipment, automotive/industrial fabs) gap identically to pure-play GPU names — export-restriction-exposure differentiation is thesis logic for holding, not a hedge against entry-day sector correlation.