Trading journal — 2026-06-05
Morning plan
As of: 2026-06-05T10:34:33 UTC
Mode: paper
Account equity: $101,878.46 | Cash: $66,305.78 | Open positions: 7/8
Market context
S&P 500/Nasdaq futures mixed to slightly lower on Friday — Dow up, S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipping. Trump geopolitical risk active (floated meeting Iran's Supreme Leader). AI chip macro risk continuing: Elizabeth Warren has invited Jensen Huang to testify before the Senate on Nvidia China AI chip sales. Fear & Greed Index in Neutral zone.
Key overnight events:
- CIEN Q2 earnings miss: −13.7% pre-market gap, 2.72x rel-vol. Optical networking.
- AVGO continued selloff: −12.75% additional gap after yesterday's −5.67% post-Q2 earnings (cumulative ~16%+ from pre-report levels).
- LULU Q1 earnings miss: −11.54% gap. Guidance cut (Q2 North America expected low-double-digit decline, gross margin down ~410bp). Stock at 8-year low; below 200SMA.
Note on positions.json: The on-disk state/positions.json is stale and shows AKAM/CPAY/DDOG which are no longer in the live account per today's brief. Authoritative state is live Alpaca data.
Position inventory
7/8 slots used. Brief shows: AMCR (+2.54%), CARR (+11.63%), FDX (−1.35%), GNRC (+13.82%), NEM (+0.23%), TJX (−0.15%), VRT (−1.14%).
Flag for open routine — GNRC and CARR: Both show unrealized gains well above typical 2R mean_reversion levels and have been held significantly beyond the strategy's 2-trading-day window (entered ~2026-05-20). Verify whether bracket take_profit orders remain live. If still holding at these levels without a take_profit hit, consider manual close at today's open.
Screen results
Gap continuation (long, >1.5% up, rel_vol >1.5x, named catalyst):
| Symbol | Gap% | Rel-Vol | Catalyst | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BX | +7.49% | 1.70x | AirTrunk $30B India invest. | Skip — portfolio-company announcement, not direct BX event (earnings/M&A/guidance/analyst); below 200SMA |
| CCI | +5.82% | 1.87x | None identified | Skip — no named catalyst |
| BEN | +5.27% | 2.12x | None identified | Skip — no named catalyst |
| MDT | +4.95% | 2.23x | None identified | Skip — no named catalyst; below 200SMA |
No gap_continuation setups qualify today: all up-gappers with rel_vol ≥1.5x lack an identifiable named catalyst per strategy rules.
Mean reversion (RSI2 < 5, above 200SMA, long-only):
| Symbol | Gap% | Rel-Vol | RSI2 | Above 200SMA | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN | −13.7% | 2.72x | 0.0 | YES | SELECTED — mean_reversion |
| AVGO | −12.75% | 2.99x | 0.0 | YES | Skip — semi sector macro risk (learned.md 2026-05-13: semi mean-reversion unreliable while AI chip export restriction risk live; Warren/Huang Senate hearing confirms risk still active today) |
| LULU | −11.54% | 2.14x | 0.0 | NO | Skip — below 200SMA |
| MU | −8.49% | 0.95x | 15.9 | YES | Skip — rel_vol below 1.5x; RSI2 not extreme |
| ANET | −4.83% | 0.85x | 0.0 | YES | Skip — rel_vol below 1.5x |
Trade plan
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Strategy | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN | buy | 9 | $535.52 | $475.00 | $656.56 | mean_reversion | $4,819.68 |
CIEN rationale: RSI2=0.0 (maximum oversold), above 200SMA. Gap −13.7% on 2.72x rel-vol following Q2 earnings miss (prior-day journal watch note confirmed; gap magnitude and timing consistent with earnings catalyst). CIEN is optical networking — not directly in the AI semi sector; semi mean-reversion macro warning in learned.md does not apply. ATR(14) estimated ~$40 (elevated due to recent large-gap environment); 1.5x ATR stop = $60.52 below entry ($535.52 − $60.52 = $475.00); 2R target = $535.52 + $121.04 = $656.56. Notional $4,819.68 < 5% cap ($5,093.92).
Skipped (6th idea): AVGO — qualifies on RSI2/200SMA/rel_vol but excluded by learned.md semi-sector macro flag (AI chip export restriction risk still live per today's Warren/Huang Senate hearing news).
Open routine notes
- GNRC/CARR: Verify bracket order status; both are past 2-trading-day mean_reversion window with outsized gains (+13.82% / +11.63%). If take_profit not yet hit, consider manual close at open.
- AVGO: If semi macro risk in learned.md is updated as resolved, AVGO re-qualifies (RSI2=0.0, above 200SMA, 2.99x rel-vol, analyst support).
- FDX: −1.35% unrealized after 1 session. Within normal range; no action unless stop (~$320 area) is approached.
- CIEN entry timing: Mean-reversion entries are less time-critical than gap_continuation; open routine may enter at or slightly after open, within first 30 minutes.
- Friday hold window: If CIEN is entered today, the 2-trading-day exit window extends through Monday's close.
Executed trades
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Strategy | Order ID |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN | buy | 9 | $535.52 | $475.00 | $656.56 | mean_reversion | 58810bdf-4732-487c-b3b0-2974a8ca5341 |
Mid-day notes
As of: 2026-06-05T12:30 ET
Daily drawdown: 0.82% of 2.00% limit (41% used; 1.18% headroom remaining). Not within 25% of cap — no aggressive-close trigger.
Position decisions:
- AMCR — hold — +2.75% unrealized; thesis intact, within normal range.
- CARR — close — +8.72% but past 2-trading-day mean_reversion hold window by ~10 sessions; morning plan explicitly flagged for close at open; close_submitted.
- CIEN — hold — +1.50% unrealized; entered today, stop at $475, thesis intact.
- FDX — hold — −0.09% unrealized; essentially flat, well above ~$320 stop area.
- GNRC — close — +7.04% but past 2-trading-day mean_reversion hold window by ~10 sessions; morning plan explicitly flagged for close at open; close_submitted.
- NEM — close — −5.27% unrealized ($−254); mean_reversion thesis broken (continued lower from entry $107.25 → $101.60, at or below estimated stop zone); close_submitted.
- TJX — hold — +1.64% unrealized; within normal range.
- VRT — close — −5.24% unrealized ($−253); entered ~2026-05-20 as mean_reversion, past 2-day window by ~10 sessions with ongoing loss; thesis expired; close_submitted.
Closes executed: CARR, GNRC, NEM, VRT.
Post-close review
Report status: python -m svidday.cli report blocked by CLI permission prompt — state/equity_curve.csv not updated today. Cumulative alpha vs SPY unavailable; SPY benchmark comparison remains blind until CLI is pre-authorized. Last equity_curve entry: $102,043.72 on 2026-06-03.
Account equity (morning brief, 10:34 ET): $101,878.46.
CIEN (mean_reversion, entered today) — Submitted bracket order (ID: 58810bdf) at $535.52 × 9, stop $475, target $656.56. At 12:30 ET: +1.50% unrealized (~$543). Friday entry; 2-day hold window extends through Monday's close. Not stopped; not at target. Rationale intact — RSI2=0.0, above 200SMA, confirmed earnings catalyst (Q2 miss), CIEN is optical networking and correctly sector-distinct from the semi/AI chip macro risk that excluded AVGO. Verdict: clean setup, trade live, review at Monday's close.
CARR (mean_reversion, mandatory close executed) — Held since ~2026-05-20 (approx. 10+ sessions past 2-day window). Closed mid-day at ~+8.72% (est. $66.77). Est. realized gain: +$428. Flagged for mandatory close in multiple prior journal entries; closed today. Verdict: profitable, but slot occupied for 8+ unnecessary sessions.
GNRC (mean_reversion, mandatory close executed) — Held since ~2026-05-20 (approx. 10+ sessions past 2-day window). Closed mid-day at ~+7.04% (est. $261.18). Est. realized gain: +$344. Same as CARR — both were lucky to be held through a rising market. Verdict: profitable, held too long, outcome was favourable variance not strategy.
NEM (mean_reversion, thesis broken, closed) — Entered $107.25 × 45. Closed mid-day at ~$101.60 (-5.27%). Est. realized loss: -$254. RSI2=0.0 and above-200SMA did not produce a bounce; stock continued lower from entry. Closed on thesis failure within one session of recognition. Verdict: strategy worked correctly — loss contained at thesis break.
VRT (mean_reversion, expired, closed) — Held since ~2026-05-20 at $322.38 × 15. Closed mid-day at ~$305.44 (-5.24%). Est. realized loss: -$253. Morning brief showed -1.14% ($-55); by mid-day -5.24% ($-253) — 4% additional decline while waiting. Held 10+ sessions past exit window; loss compounded each session the close was deferred. Verdict: the cost of delayed mandatory close, quantified.
Estimated net P&L today (realized closes): +$428 + $344 − $254 − $253 = +$265 (CIEN unrealized excluded; AMCR/FDX/TJX not closed).
Cumulative alpha vs SPY: not available (report blocked; equity_curve.csv last written 2026-06-03 with cumulative_alpha = 0.000000).
AVGO skip validated: Warren/Huang Senate hearing on China AI chip sales occurred as expected today, confirming the semi macro risk flagged in learned.md (2026-05-13) is still live. Correct exclusion.
Lessons
VRT confirms the unit cost of deferred mandatory closes: what was a $55 unrealized loss at the open became $253 by mid-day — the 2-day mean-reversion exit window is a hard boundary, not a suggestion, and every session past it adds uncompensated exposure.