Trading journal — 2026-05-21
Morning plan
Macro context
NVDA Q1 beat (after 5/20 close) — Jensen Huang bullish on Vera CPUs ($200B opportunity) and AI inference share growth. Broad futures mixed: Dow up, Nasdaq slightly down. Airlines (UAL +10%, DAL +9.35%) gapping on Trump-Xi trade sentiment — no named catalyst for either (skipped). Deere Q2 massive beat (EPS $6.55 vs $5.73 est, Sales $13.4B vs $11.5B est) but not in gappers list (no gap_pct/rel_volume available → skipped per rules). Intuit positive Q3 results — also not in gappers list.
Position slot constraint
7 of 8 positions open (AKAM, AMCR, CARR, DDOG, GNRC, NEM, VRT). Only 1 new slot available.
Ideas screened
| # | Symbol | Gap% | Rel-Vol | Above 200SMA | Catalyst | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TJX | +5.67% | 1.99x | ✓ | BTIG upgrade, PT→$190 (analyst) | TRADE |
| 2 | UAL | +9.99% | 1.87x | ✗ | None (macro sentiment) | Skip: no named catalyst |
| 3 | DAL | +9.35% | 2.60x | ✓ | None (macro sentiment) | Skip: no named catalyst |
| 4 | CCL | +8.96% | 1.64x | ✗ | None | Skip: no named catalyst |
| 5 | DXCM | +6.77% | 1.79x | ✓ | None | Skip: no named catalyst |
| 6 | GS | +5.76% | 1.79x | ✓ | None | Skip: no named catalyst |
| 7 | ALGN | +5.33% | 2.00x | ✓ | None | Skip: no named catalyst |
| 8 | HAS | −8.92% | 3.13x | ✓ | None | Skip: long-only (gap down) |
| — | 17 others | varied | <1.5x | — | — | Skip: rel_vol below threshold |
Plan
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Strategy | Risk/share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | buy | 31 | $159.24 | $154.74 | $168.24 | gap_continuation | $4.50 |
TJX rationale: BTIG Maintains Buy, raises PT to $190 (analyst upgrade = named catalyst). Gap +5.67% on 1.99x rel-vol — above the 1.5x confirmation threshold. Above 200SMA. Gap < 7% avoids over-reaction risk. Notional $4,936.44 ≤ 5% equity cap ($4,964.04). ATR(14) est. $3.00 → stop 1.5x ATR = $4.50 below entry; target 2R = $9.00 above.
Open routine: tighten stop to 5-min opening range low if tighter than $154.74.
Earnings reporting today (watch for intraday volatility)
- ROST: Q1 results due today — analysts expect $1.72 EPS, $5.65B rev. Not in plan (not in gappers at brief time).
- TTWO: Q4 results due today — analysts expect $2.52 EPS. Not in plan.
Executed trades
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Strategy | Alpaca Order ID |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | buy | 31 | $159.24 | $154.74 | $168.24 | gap_continuation | ea1c69ca-27de-449e-8b25-530592f89554 |
Mid-day notes
Checked 12:30 ET. Mode: paper. Halted: false. Daily drawdown: −0.006% used of 2.00% limit (~0.3% of cap consumed; 99.7% headroom). No aggressive-close threshold reached.
| Symbol | Action | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| AKAM | Hold | Down −2.82% (−$137.61), worst performer; no fresh thesis-breaking news identified. Stop level from original entry applies. Flag for close routine if further deterioration. |
| AMCR | Hold | Up +3.57% (+$176.85); thesis intact, performing well. v2 TODO: tighten stop to protect gains. |
| CARR | Hold | Up +1.28% (+$62.84); RSI mean-reversion thesis proceeding within range. |
| DDOG | Hold | Up +7.89% (+$378.72); strong winner. v2 TODO: tighten stop to lock in gains. |
| GNRC | Hold | Essentially flat −0.08% (−$3.70); within expected variance. |
| NEM | Hold | Essentially flat −0.21% (−$9.90); gold tracking normally. |
| TJX | Hold | Down −1.25% (−$61.46); today's gap_continuation trade. Price below entry ($158.86) but above stop ($154.74). Gap partially filled — thesis weakening, but within defined risk parameters. No close. |
| VRT | Hold | Up +1.05% (+$51.00); positive drift, thesis intact. |
No closes executed. No positions required forced action under current drawdown level.
Post-close review
Portfolio at close: $99,836.21 equity (−$163.79 / −0.16% on day). 3 of 9 positions remain open (AKAM, CPAY, DDOG); 6 closed during session (AMCR, CARR, GNRC, NEM, TJX, VRT).
| Symbol | Outcome | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| TJX | Closed — likely stopped out | Mid-day: price $158.86 (−$1.98/share vs $159.24 entry), gap partially filled, thesis weakening. Stop at $154.74. Not in end-of-day positions — estimated realized loss ~$139.50 (31 × $4.50). Catalyst (BTIG upgrade) confirmed but price action did not follow through. |
| DDOG | Open — reversed to loss | Mid-day +7.89% (+$378.72 unrealized, est. $215.78/share). Close: $197.99, −$48.24 unrealized (−1.01%). Major intraday reversal. Mid-day note flagged "tighten stop to lock in gains" — not executed. Full gain given back and flipped negative. Still open, stop not hit. |
| AKAM | Open — recovered | Mid-day low −$137.61; close +$13.20 unrealized (+0.27% on position). Thesis-breaking news flag from mid-day did not materialise; position stabilised. |
| CPAY | Open — no change | −$103.98 unrealized (−2.16% on position, $336.06 vs $343.49 avg). 8th consecutive session with no active thesis. |
| AMCR, CARR, GNRC, NEM, VRT | Closed | Net realized P&L across all 6 closed positions (incl. TJX) estimated at −$24.77 (equity delta −$163.79 minus open unrealized −$139.02). Per-position breakdown unavailable — CLI report denied, equity_curve.csv not written. |
Cumulative alpha vs SPY: Unavailable — state/equity_curve.csv has not been written in any session to date (CLI approval blocked in every post-close routine).
Lessons
DDOG's +7.89% intraday gain fully reversed to a loss because the mid-day check produced a note to tighten the stop but no actual stop order was modified — the mid-day routine must execute stop adjustments for positions up >5%, not defer them to a "v2 TODO".