Trading journal — 2026-05-22
Morning plan
Macro context
Broad futures positive: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq all green on US–Iran peace-talk optimism. Fear & Greed remains in "Greed" zone (CNN index). Dominant themes: AI chip investment (Trump admin $1B IBM quantum foundry; Meta/Broadcom $125M UCLA chip hub), WMT Q1 earnings with inflation guidance warning, INTU large post-earnings gap. Semi-sector macro risk from China export restrictions remains (learned context 2026-05-13); QCOM skipped for that reason. NVDA post-earnings noise settling — broad growth recovery visible in DDOG (+9.1% unrealized) and VRT (+3.1%).
Position slot constraint
8 of 8 positions open (AKAM, AMCR, CARR, DDOG, GNRC, NEM, TJX, VRT). At MAX_OPEN_POSITIONS cap. No new entries can be submitted — risk check rejects when open_positions >= 8. Zero new trades today.
Ideas screened
| # | Symbol | Gap% | Rel-Vol | RSI(2) | Above 200SMA | Catalyst | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IBM | +12.57% | 4.48x | n/a | ✗ | Trump admin $1B quantum foundry investment | Would trade (gap_continuation) — BLOCKED: no slot |
| 2 | WMT | −7.32% | 3.48x | 0 | ✓ | Q1 earnings, inflation guidance warning | Would trade (mean_reversion) — BLOCKED: no slot |
| 3 | INTU | −20.03% | 5.18x | 0 | ✗ | Unknown (no named EPS/rev catalyst in brief) | Skip: not above 200SMA → mean_reversion disqualified; long-only so gap-short not allowed |
| 4 | RL | +13.75% | 3.09x | n/a | ✓ | None identifiable in brief | Skip: no named catalyst |
| 5 | DE | −5.27% | 3.06x | 7 | ✓ | None identifiable | Skip: RSI(2)=7 does not meet <5 threshold for mean_reversion |
| 6 | VLO | −5.06% | 1.12x | 0 | ✓ | None identifiable | Skip: rel_vol 1.12x < 1.5x required threshold |
| — | 19 others | varied | <1.5x | — | — | — | Skip: rel_vol below threshold |
Plan
No new trades. Position cap full (8/8).
If IBM or WMT slots open intraday (existing position hits stop or target), the open routine should treat them as priority candidates:
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry est. | Stop | Target | Strategy | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBM | buy | 19 | $253.10 | $241.85 | $275.60 | gap_continuation | $1B Trump admin quantum foundry investment (government/policy catalyst); gap +12.57% on 4.48x rel-vol. ATR(14) est. $7.50 → stop 1.5x = $11.25 below entry; 2R target = $22.50 above. Not above 200SMA — requires tight stop discipline. |
| WMT | buy | 41 | $121.34 | $117.96 | $128.10 | mean_reversion | RSI(2)=0 on Q1 earnings gap, above 200SMA. ATR(14) est. $2.25 → stop $3.38 below entry; 2R target = $6.76 above. Caution: guidance warned of inflation in Q2 — mean-reversion may be shallow. |
These entries are NOT in today_plan.json and will NOT be auto-executed at the open. Documented for human decision only if a position closes intraday.
Earnings/events today (watch for intraday volatility)
- ROST: Q1 earnings call transcript released 2026-05-21 post-close. Market continuing to digest results.
- WDAY: Q1 FY2027 earnings reported 2026-05-21 post-close — guided Q2 sales $2.635B vs $2.628B est (slight beat); FY2027 guidance affirmed. Not in gappers list; if gap develops during session, no slot available regardless.
Executed trades
No trades executed — today_plan.json contained 0 trades (position cap was full at open, 8/8).
Mid-day notes
Drawdown: 0.164% of equity used vs 2.00% daily limit (8.2% of cap). Well under 75% aggressive-close threshold — no forced closes required by the cap rule.
State-file caveat: cli status and close-position both blocked pending permission approval (see learned context recurring mistake entry). state/positions.json shows only 3 positions; AMCR, CARR, GNRC, NEM, TJX, VRT from the morning plan are not reflected — file is likely stale. Decisions below cover only confirmed positions.
| Symbol | Decision | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| AKAM | Hold | +0.27% unrealized, flat/inline with thesis; bracket in place |
| CPAY | Close — MANUAL ACTION REQUIRED | −2.16% (−$104); no thesis for 7+ consecutive sessions (learned context recurring mistake); python -m svidday.cli close-position CPAY was attempted and blocked — human must execute |
| DDOG | Hold | −1.01% unrealized, within normal ATR noise; bracket stop handles downside automatically |
| AMCR, CARR, GNRC, NEM, TJX, VRT | Unable to assess | Not in positions.json — state file stale; no live cli status available |
v2 TODO (tighten-stop): No CLI support for stop adjustment in v1. If AKAM continues to trend up intraday, trail stop manually.
Post-close review
Report: python -m svidday.cli report blocked (CLI permission issue — recurring blocker documented in learned context). state/equity_curve.csv remains unwritten for the 7th+ consecutive session. Cumulative alpha vs SPY is still blind.
Positions (from state/positions.json — stale; only 3 of 8 positions reflected):
| Symbol | Unrealized P&L | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| AKAM | +$13.20 (+0.27%) | Hold; bracket in place; flat, inline with thesis |
| CPAY | −$103.98 (−2.16%) | No thesis for 8+ consecutive sessions; slot occupied; manual close still blocked |
| DDOG | −$48.24 (−1.01%) | Within normal ATR noise; bracket handles downside automatically |
| AMCR, CARR, GNRC, NEM, TJX, VRT | Unknown | Not reflected in positions.json — state file stale |
Trades executed today: Zero. Position cap was 8/8 at open and remained full all day.
Missed setups (slot-blocked):
- IBM +12.57% gap on $1B Trump admin quantum foundry announcement — gap_continuation, 4.48x rel-vol, strong government catalyst. High-conviction; likely winner.
- WMT −7.32% earnings gap with RSI(2)=0 above 200SMA — mean_reversion. Caution warranted (negative Q2 inflation guidance), but setup technically valid.
Account equity: $99,836.21 vs last $100,000.00. Daily P&L: approx −$163.79 (−0.164%). Well inside the 2% daily loss limit.
Verdict: Zero-trade day. CPAY's stale slot directly blocked two of the week's strongest setups. IBM's +12.57% government-catalyst gap was the highest-conviction miss.
Lessons
A stale position with no remaining thesis doesn't just bleed P&L — it occupies a slot that blocks today's best setups.