Trading journal — 2026-05-20

Morning plan

Account: Equity $99,139 | Cash $79,475 | 4 open positions (AKAM, AMCR, DDOG, NEM) | Paper mode

Pre-market context:

NVDA reports Q1 earnings after close today. Street bullish on AI demand but China banned NVDA gaming chip during Jensen Huang's visit (FT). Bond yields elevated.
S&P 500 futures UP on the day despite two consecutive down sessions.
Broad market sell-off in S&P 500 names — most gappers negative, technically driven, few fundamental catalysts.
LOW and TJX both reported earnings beats pre-market but neither appeared in the gappers feed (no gap_pct/rel_volume data — skipped per hard rules).

Strategy used today: mean_reversion (all 3 ideas)

Gap continuation: no qualifying upward gaps with named catalysts. HAS gapped +3.79% on 1.90x rel-vol but no earnings/M&A/guidance/analyst catalyst identified — skipped per rules. EQT +4.0% but rel_vol 1.16 < 1.5x threshold.

Earnings drift: LOW beat on EPS+rev but not in gappers feed (no gap_pct/rel_volume). TJX same.

Mean reversion signal strong: many S&P 500 names showing RSI(2)=0 above 200SMA with no fundamental catalyst for the gap.

Ideas considered (5 evaluated): VRT ✅, CARR ✅, GNRC ✅, HAS ❌ (no named catalyst), EQT ❌ (rel_vol below 1.5x)

Additional skips: AKAM — RSI(2)=0 + above 200SMA qualifies technically, but already held in portfolio at −$191 unrealized AND the gap has a real catalyst (upsized $3B convertible note offering — dilutive). Mean reversion doesn't apply when the gap has a genuine fundamental reason. MRNA — rel_vol 0.87, sub-average volume.

Trade plan:

#	Symbol	Side	Qty	Entry	Stop	Target	Strategy	Position $
1	VRT	buy	15	322.64	298.64	370.64	mean_reversion	$4,840
2	CARR	buy	80	61.41	58.11	68.01	mean_reversion	$4,913
3	GNRC	buy	20	244.08	231.33	269.58	mean_reversion	$4,882

All positions ≤ 5% of equity ($4,957 cap). All have bracket stops.

Risk per trade: VRT $360 (2R = $720), CARR $264 (2R = $528), GNRC $255 (2R = $510).

Executed trades

Symbol	Side	Qty	Entry	Stop	Target	Order ID	Strategy
VRT	buy	15	322.64	298.64	370.64	7b763780-0585-4815-a33c-70222bf267d8	mean_reversion
CARR	buy	80	61.41	58.11	68.01	31379679-936a-4631-b4a6-28f6b1791b12	mean_reversion
GNRC	buy	20	244.08	231.33	269.58	c2e22905-a162-4714-b12b-386b74d5b717	mean_reversion

Rejections: none.

Mid-day notes

12:30 ET — mid-day review

⚠️ python -m svidday.cli status blocked (CLI approval required — see learned.md recurring mistake). Live P&L and daily_drawdown_pct unavailable; decisions below are based on morning journal context only. Manual CLI run or pre-authorization in .claude/settings.json needed to close the data gap.

Position decisions (7 open):

AKAM — CLOSE recommended (manual action required): thesis broken — morning plan explicitly noted the gap has a genuine fundamental catalyst (dilutive $3B convertible offering); mean-reversion does not apply; already −$191 unrealized at open. Run python -m svidday.cli close-position AKAM manually.
VRT — hold: mean-reversion entry today (322.64), stop at 298.64 brackets the trade; broad market futures up, no new adverse catalyst identified.
CARR — hold: mean-reversion entry today (61.41), stop at 58.11; thesis intact absent new data.
GNRC — hold: mean-reversion entry today (244.08), stop at 231.33; thesis intact absent new data.
AMCR — hold tentatively: no adverse catalyst in today's context; original thesis unknown without status read — flag for manual review.
DDOG — hold tentatively: no adverse catalyst in today's context; flag for manual review.
NEM — hold tentatively: no adverse catalyst in today's context; flag for manual review.

Drawdown headroom: unknown — CLI blocked. Manual check required before close.

v2 TODO (tighten stops): VRT, CARR, GNRC if they have moved favorably intraday — no CLI support in v1; leave brackets in place.

Post-close review

CLI blocked (8th consecutive session): python -m svidday.cli report denied by permissions — equity_curve.csv not updated; SPY comparison unavailable. All position outcomes below are inferred from plan context, not confirmed fills.

Today's entries (mean_reversion × 3):

Symbol	Entry	Stop	Target	Verdict
VRT	322.64	298.64	370.64	Unknown — no CLI confirmation. Thesis intact: RSI(2)=0 sympathy sell ahead of NVDA earnings, no VRT-specific catalyst. Futures UP at open favoured the reversal.
CARR	61.41	58.11	68.01	Unknown. RSI(2)=0, bond-yield-driven macro gap; no CARR-specific news.
GNRC	244.08	231.33	269.58	Unknown. RSI(2)=0, catalyst-free sell; thesis intact.

Existing positions:

AKAM — close recommended twice (morning + mid-day); thesis broken by $3B dilutive convertible offering. Closure required manual CLI action — outcome unknown. If still open, close first thing tomorrow.
CPAY — positions.json shows 14 shares @ avg $343.49, current $336.06, unrealized −$104. No thesis. Has been held 8+ sessions. Manual close still required.
DDOG — positions.json shows 24 shares unrealized −$48.24. No adverse catalyst. Held.
AMCR, NEM — status unknown (not in stale positions.json snapshot). Held tentatively; flag for tomorrow's morning review.

Cumulative alpha vs SPY: indeterminate — equity_curve.csv has never been written (CLI approval blocker, first noted 2026-05-14).

Today's net P&L: indeterminate without CLI. Stale positions.json shows account equity $99,836 vs $100,000 start (−$164 unrealized total), but does not include today's three new positions or NEM/AMCR.

Lessons