Trading journal — 2026-06-18
Morning plan
Date: 2026-06-18 | Mode: paper | Equity: $100,762.77 | Cash: $80,264.72 | Open positions: 4
Account status
Not halted. Trading not blocked. Proceeding with normal pre-market analysis.
Macro context
Fed kept rates unchanged at yesterday's FOMC but signaled future tightening (hawkish surprise) → 500+ point Dow sell-off Wednesday. Thursday futures surging: market rebounding from the overreaction. Fear & Greed Index in "Fear" zone. Trump announced Apple-Intel US chip manufacturing deal; Noam Shazeer (Gemini co-lead) joins OpenAI. Neither drives today's gapper candidates directly.
Open positions — mandatory close alert
All four open positions are past their mandatory close dates. These must be the first human action at the open, before any new-trade consideration.
| Symbol | Entry | Current | Unrealized P&L | Sessions overdue | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMCR | $36.69 | $40.93 | +$572.40 (+11.56%) | 11+ sessions | Extremely overdue — close immediately |
| TJX | $158.86 | $164.13 | +$163.29 (+3.32%) | 7+ sessions | Overdue — close immediately |
| CIEN | $439.08 | $451.00 | +$131.12 (+2.72%) | 3+ sessions | Overdue; slightly green — close immediately |
| FSLR | $258.59 | $259.13 | +$10.18 (+0.21%) | 3+ sessions | Bernstein Underperform initiation ($217 target) still live; close immediately |
Gapper screen analysis — 25 names reviewed
Macro sweep: Many names gapping down 5–7% across tech/software/financials (NDAQ, IT, ACN, NOW, ADBE, META, CHTR, APP, EL, ARES, FICO, etc.) — uniform pattern driven by FOMC hawkish-surprise sell-off. Macro-event heuristic applied (validated 5× prior): identifiable-catalyst filter eliminates the entire sweep. Zero single-name catalysts across the down-gapper cohort.
Candidates reviewed — gap continuation (need ≥1.5% gap, ≥1.5× rel_vol, named catalyst):
| Symbol | Gap | Rel-Vol | Above 200SMA | Disposition | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | +11.55% | 1.87× | Yes | SKIP | No news in brief; catalyst unknown — hard rule prohibits unnamed catalyst |
| HOOD | +9.11% | 1.99× | Yes | SKIP | Crypto sector momentum is sentiment, not earnings/M&A/guidance/analyst; Ark sold into the rally |
| GEV | +6.79% | 1.61× | Yes | SKIP | No named catalyst; broad market bounce |
| WDC | +5.73% | 1.50× | Yes | SKIP | SK Hynix HBM news is NVDA supply chain, not WDC-specific |
| AVGO | +5.01% | 1.35× | Yes | SKIP | rel_vol < 1.5×; debt tender offer is capital structure not revenue catalyst |
Candidates reviewed — mean reversion (RSI(2) < 5, above 200SMA):
| Symbol | Gap | Rel-Vol | RSI(2) | Above 200SMA | Disposition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | −5.68% | 1.60× | 0.0 | Yes | QUALIFY |
| SLB | −5.19% | 1.71× | 0.0 | Yes | QUALIFY |
| CHTR | −6.96% | 1.74× | 0.0 | No | SKIP — above_200sma=false |
| NDAQ | −6.69% | 2.38× | 0.0 | No | SKIP — above_200sma=false |
| ACN | −5.76% | 2.05× | 4.1 | No | SKIP — RSI(2)=4.1 (>5 threshold); above_200sma=false; reports earnings today — watch T+1 for earnings drift |
| APP/EL/BAX/ARES/NOW | −5–7% | <1.5× | 0.0 | No | SKIP — rel_vol and/or 200SMA fail |
Trade plan — 2 trades
Equity: $100,762.77 | Max position (5%): $5,038.14 | ATR estimates from typical daily range
| Symbol | Strategy | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | mean_reversion | buy | 23 | $218.31 | $210.06 | $234.81 | $5,021.13 |
| SLB | mean_reversion | buy | 100 | $50.33 | $48.68 | $53.63 | $5,033.00 |
ODFL rationale: RSI(2)=0 on S&P 500 freight name above 200SMA. Triggered by Wednesday's broad FOMC sell-off, not a freight-specific catalyst. Thursday futures surging → macro trigger relaxing; T+1 mean-reversion entry day. ATR(14) est. $5.50; stop = 1.5×ATR = $8.25 below entry; target = 2×$8.25 above entry.
SLB rationale: RSI(2)=0 on S&P 500 oilfield-services name above 200SMA. Oil/energy sector not directly tied to the Fed rate hawkishness catalyst. 1.71× rel-vol confirms elevated sell pressure → heightened snap-back potential on bounce day. ATR(14) est. $1.10; stop = 1.5×ATR = $1.65 below entry; target = 2×$1.65 above entry.
Note on execution sequencing: Open routine must close all four overdue positions (AMCR, CIEN, FSLR, TJX) first. After those closes, 5 slots are available. ODFL and SLB entries should follow immediately — mean-reversion setups are most reliable in the first 30–60 minutes of trading.
Edge cases for the open routine
- All four open positions must close at the open — FSLR has an active Bernstein Underperform initiation ($217 target vs $259); treat all four as immediate market-on-open sells.
- ACN (Accenture) reports earnings today — if they beat on EPS+rev with a gap up <5% on T+1 (2026-06-19), that becomes an earnings drift setup tomorrow.
- KR (Kroger) reports earnings today — same: watch for T+1 drift setup.
- MRNA +11.55% — catalyst not in news feed; if an FDA approval or clinical data release surfaces during the session, may qualify as earnings-drift analog for T+1.
- Position slot math: 4 open → after 4 closes: 0 → add ODFL+SLB: 2 open.
Executed trades
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Order ID | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | buy | 23 | $218.31 | $210.06 | $234.81 | d7ad312b-acc6-49fa-8c77-8ee1098bc771 | mean_reversion |
| SLB | buy | 100 | $50.33 | $48.68 | $53.63 | eb997330-7326-4599-b7a2-7b5a1f7d73b6 | mean_reversion |
Submitted at market open 2026-06-18 09:32 ET. Both orders PENDING_NEW. No rejections.
Mid-day notes
As of 12:30 ET — CLI blocked (PowerShell approval required); positions.json is stale (shows AKAM/CPAY/DDOG from a prior state, not today's positions). All decisions below are based on journal context; execution requires manual human action.
Drawdown headroom
positions.jsondrawdown reading: 0.164% daily drawdown vs 2.0% limit → 8.2% of daily limit used (91.8% headroom). This figure is stale; actual drawdown unknown but not expected to breach threshold given today's morning plan positions were green at submit.
Mandatory closes — HUMAN ACTION REQUIRED at open (unconfirmed)
The four overdue positions below do not appear in "Executed trades" — their close status is unconfirmed. If any remain open, they must be closed immediately:
- AMCR — CLOSE — 11+ sessions past mandatory close; thesis expired; broker action #1.
- TJX — CLOSE — 7+ sessions past mandatory close; thesis expired.
- CIEN — CLOSE — 3+ sessions past mandatory close; thesis expired.
- FSLR — CLOSE — 3+ sessions past mandatory close; Bernstein Underperform initiation ($217 target) still live; nearly flat (+0.21%) as of morning; holding adds uncompensated downside risk.
Today's entries (submitted 09:32 ET as PENDING_NEW — fill unconfirmed)
- ODFL — HOLD — Mean-reversion thesis intact: RSI(2)=0 on FOMC macro sell-off, bounce day. Hold to target $234.81; stop $210.06 protects downside. No thesis-breaking news surfaced.
- SLB — HOLD — Mean-reversion thesis intact: RSI(2)=0, 1.71× rel-vol, oil services not directly tied to FOMC hawkishness. Hold to target $53.63; stop $48.68. No thesis-breaking news surfaced.
No closes executed this session
CLI command close-position requires PowerShell approval that was not pre-authorized. This is the same recurring block documented in context/learned.md. To prevent this recurrence: pre-authorize & "C:\Users\bobby\venvs\svidday\Scripts\python.exe" in .claude/settings.json.
Post-close review
CLI report command blocked (PowerShell approval required — same recurring issue). Equity curve not updated. All outcomes below are based on journal context and state files; fills are unconfirmed.
Mandatory closes — status UNCONFIRMED
| Symbol | Overdue sessions | Unrealized P&L at open | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMCR | 11+ | +$572.40 (+11.56%) | CLI block prevented automated close; close status unknown at market end |
| TJX | 7+ | +$163.29 (+3.32%) | Same — unconfirmed |
| CIEN | 3+ | +$131.12 (+2.72%) | Same — unconfirmed |
| FSLR | 3+ | +$10.18 (+0.21%) | Same — Bernstein $217 target adds ongoing downside risk if still open |
Verdict: All four mandatory closes were unconfirmed by mid-day and remain unconfirmed at close. If any are still open they must be the first human action at tomorrow's open. This is the same failure mode as 2026-06-15 and prior sessions.
New entries — ODFL and SLB
ODFL (mean_reversion): Submitted PENDING_NEW at 09:32 ET. Fill unconfirmed. Thesis was structurally sound: RSI(2)=0 on S&P 500 freight name above 200SMA, triggered by Wednesday's FOMC-driven macro sell-off, not a freight-specific event; Thursday bounce day (surging futures) was the T+1 entry. Stop $210.06, target $234.81. Outcome: unknown. Cannot determine whether filled, stopped, hit target, or is still open.
SLB (mean_reversion): Submitted PENDING_NEW at 09:32 ET. Fill unconfirmed. Thesis structurally sound: RSI(2)=0 on oil-services name above 200SMA, oil/energy sector not directly tied to FOMC hawkishness, 1.71× rel-vol confirming elevated sell pressure. Stop $48.68, target $53.63. Outcome: unknown. Same status as ODFL.
Morning rationale vs realised outcome: Cannot assess. Both setups were legitimate T+1 mean-reversion entries on a genuine macro bounce day; whether they produced alpha or losses is permanently unknown without fill confirmation.
Cumulative alpha vs SPY
Last updated: 2026-06-03 (baseline, 0.000000). Not updated today — report blocked. Blind for 15 consecutive trading days.
Net P&L
Unknown. Morning equity $100,762.77 (down ~$1,281 from the 2026-06-03 baseline of $102,043.72). End-of-day equity not available.
Lessons
Even a post-close routine that fires correctly cannot write an accurate review if its own report command is blocked — the CLI permission gap corrupts not just execution but the audit trail itself.