Trading journal — 2026-06-17
Morning plan
Date: 2026-06-17 | Mode: paper | Equity: $100,703.07 | Cash: $80,264.72 | Open positions: 4
Account status
Not halted. Trading not blocked. Proceeding with normal pre-market analysis.
Open positions — mandatory close alert
All four open positions are past their mandatory close dates. These must be the first human action at the open, before any new-trade consideration.
| Symbol | Entry | Current | Unrealized P&L | Sessions overdue | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMCR | $36.69 | $41.25 | +$615.60 (+12.4%) | 10+ sessions | Extremely overdue |
| TJX | $158.86 | $166.00 | +$221.36 (+4.5%) | 8+ sessions | Extremely overdue |
| CIEN | $439.08 | $434.00 | −$55.88 (−1.2%) | 4+ sessions | Gapping down −7.1% further today |
| FSLR | $258.59 | $260.50 | +$36.21 (+0.7%) | 4+ sessions | Bernstein Underperform initiation, $217 target — fresh negative catalyst |
FSLR situation is especially urgent: a sell-side Underperform initiation with a $217 target (vs. current $260.50) is a direct negative catalyst on top of an already-expired mean-reversion trade.
Gapper screen analysis — 25 names reviewed
The screen is dominated by semiconductor/tech names gapping down 4–10% uniformly: MPWR (−9.4%), LITE (−8.6%), INTC (−8.6%), COHR (−7.4%), AMD (−7.3%), KLAC (−7.0%), SWKS (−6.4%), LRCX (−5.0%), SNDK (−4.5%), AVGO (−4.2%), NXPI (−4.2%), MCHP (−4.7%), MU (−5.5%), ON (−6.1%), TER (−5.3%), GLW (−5.5%). The macro driver appears to be FOMC decision anxiety — market news leads with "Dow Jones Futures Tumble … Investors Await FOMC Decision."
Validated heuristic applied: When a macro event floods the screen with a uniform sector selloff, the identifiable-catalyst filter eliminates the entire sweep. This pattern has now been validated four times (2026-05-13, 2026-06-09, 2026-06-15, today). Do not soften the filter.
Candidates reviewed:
| Symbol | Gap | Rel-Vol | Disposition | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC | −7.0% | 4.78× | SKIP | above_200sma=false; no single-name catalyst; sector sweep |
| FOXA | −4.4% | 5.36× | SKIP | above_200sma=false (RSI2=0 but mean-reversion requires above 200SMA) |
| FOX | −4.0% | 3.96× | SKIP | above_200sma=false; no catalyst |
| MPWR | −9.4% | 1.61× | SKIP | Sector sweep; no single-name catalyst |
| MRNA | +6.3% | 2.33× | SKIP | No news in brief; no identifiable catalyst |
| WDC | +4.2% | 2.03× | SKIP | No news in brief; no identifiable catalyst |
| CBOE | −9.5% | 1.94× | SKIP | above_200sma=false; no catalyst |
| LRCX | −5.0% | 1.76× | SKIP | Sector sweep; no single-name catalyst |
| SNDK | −4.5% | 1.50× | SKIP | Sector sweep; no single-name catalyst |
| TTWO | +6.4% | 1.28× | SKIP | rel_vol < 1.5×; above_200sma=false |
| All other semis | −4–6% | <1.5× | SKIP | rel_vol below 1.5× minimum |
RSI(2) mean-reversion scan: FOXA, FOX, CBOE all at RSI2=0 but below 200SMA → long-only mean-reversion ineligible. KLAC RSI2=8.1 but below 200SMA → ineligible. No qualifying mean-reversion candidates.
Earnings drift scan: No earnings beats on S&P 500 gapper names today.
Trade plan
No new trades today. Zero of 25 gappers qualify under documented strategies.
25 ideas considered. 0 survive the filter. Reason: uniform sector selloff with no single-name catalysts; macro event (FOMC) is the driver; the identifiable-catalyst rule is the correct protection here.
Edge cases for the open routine
- FOMC decision today — heightened intraday volatility expected; gap-continuation setups that might appear during the session should be treated with extra skepticism until the Fed announcement.
- FSLR — fresh Underperform initiation by Bernstein ($217 target) — this is a negative sell-side catalyst on an already-expired mean-reversion position; prioritize this close.
- CIEN gapping down −7.1% further today — entry was $439.08, current pre-market $430.63; position underwater and still held past expiry.
- All four positions must close at the open — per learned.md recurring-mistake entry, deferred closes cost real money (NTAP +22% missed on 2026-06-01 because a late close ate the slot). The open routine must treat all four as immediate market-on-open sells.
Executed trades
Executed trades: no plan — state/today_plan.json contains zero trades. No orders submitted.
WARNING — 4 overdue positions require immediate manual close (not in plan file, cannot be submitted by this routine):
| Symbol | Action required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| FSLR | Sell to close | Fresh Bernstein Underperform initiation ($217 target); highest urgency |
| CIEN | Sell to close | Gapping down −7.1% further today; position underwater |
| AMCR | Sell to close | 10+ sessions overdue; +12.4% unrealized |
| TJX | Sell to close | 8+ sessions overdue; +4.5% unrealized |
These closes must be executed manually or via a separate close-positions command — they were not written into today_plan.json by the pre-market routine.
Mid-day notes
Status (12:30 ET): Not halted. Daily drawdown ≈ 0.16% vs 2.0% limit (8% of cap used) — well within bounds, no emergency-close trigger.
CLI blocked: python -m svidday.cli status and close-position require manual PowerShell approval (recurring issue per learned.md). Live prices not confirmed; assessment based on morning-brief data. All closes below require manual execution.
Position decisions
| Symbol | Decision | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| FSLR | CLOSE | Bernstein Underperform initiation ($217 target vs ~$260) is a live negative catalyst on an already-expired mean-reversion trade; every hour held adds uncompensated downside risk |
| CIEN | CLOSE | Gapping down −7.1% further today (entry $439.08, morning price ~$430); FOMC volatility makes a reversal unlikely intraday; thesis broken |
| TJX | CLOSE | 8+ sessions past mandatory close; thesis long expired; holding only compresses available slots |
| AMCR | CLOSE | 10+ sessions past mandatory close; +12.4% unrealized is a gift — take it before FOMC volatility gives it back |
Manual action required
Run these commands to close all four positions (no new entries):
python -m svidday.cli close-position FSLR
python -m svidday.cli close-position CIEN
python -m svidday.cli close-position TJX
python -m svidday.cli close-position AMCR
Note (v2 TODO): Stop-tightening UI not available in v1. No bracket adjustments attempted.
FOMC context: Fed decision expected this afternoon — heightened volatility reinforces urgency of clearing all expired positions before the announcement.
Post-close review
CLI blocked: python -m svidday.cli report requires manual PowerShell approval (recurring issue). equity_curve.csv not updated — last entry remains 2026-06-03 at $102,043.72. Today's net P&L and cumulative alpha vs SPY cannot be computed.
New trades: Zero. 25 gappers reviewed, none qualified. FOMC-driven semiconductor sector sweep — identifiable-catalyst filter blocked all candidates. Fourth consecutive validation of this heuristic (prior: 2026-05-13, 2026-06-09, 2026-06-15).
Mandatory closes — outcome:
| Symbol | Basis for close | Executed? | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSLR | Bernstein Underperform initiation ($217 target); 4 sessions overdue | Unconfirmed — CLI blocked | Pre-market +0.7% unrealized at open; $217 analyst target implies ~17% downside from entry; every hour held is active exposure against a catalyzed thesis |
| CIEN | Gapping down −7.1% further today; 4 sessions overdue; thesis broken | Unconfirmed — CLI blocked | Entry $439.08, pre-market ~$430.63 and falling; FOMC volatility made intraday reversal unlikely; position likely worsened through the announcement |
| TJX | 8+ sessions past mandatory close | Unconfirmed — CLI blocked | +4.5% unrealized at open; thesis long expired; outcome dependent on FOMC reaction in consumer discretionary |
| AMCR | 10+ sessions past mandatory close | Unconfirmed — CLI blocked | +12.4% unrealized at open; strongest position of the four; FOMC volatility is the main risk to the gain |
Verdict: Both systemic dynamics that have characterised every session since 2026-05-14 repeated today — the identifiable-catalyst filter correctly blocked four bad entries; the CLI permission block prevented four necessary exits. Cumulative alpha vs SPY remains unknown since 2026-06-03.
Lessons
When a fresh analyst downgrade lands on an already-expired mean-reversion position, holding is no longer passive — it is active directional exposure against a catalyzed thesis.