Journal — 2026-05-18

Morning plan

Macro context: Risk-off open. Drone strike on UAE Barakah nuclear plant dropped futures. NVDA earnings Wednesday — elevated sector volatility through week. Iran-war fuel-cost narrative continues. Avoid semis (learned: mean-reversion unreliable while chip export restriction risk is live).

Account: Equity $99,703.50 | Cash $76,297.95 | 5 open positions (AKAM +3.6%, CPAY -4.4%, DDOG +3.9%, Q -6.5%, SNDK -2.4%)

Note for open routine: CPAY down -4.4%, no surviving thesis (four sessions). Q down -6.5%. If MAX_OPEN_POSITIONS <= 5, new entries may be blocked until existing losers are closed.

Ideas considered (7):

Symbol	Gap%	RelVol	RSI2	200SMA	Decision
NEM	-6.2%	1.16	0.0	above	TRADE - mean_reversion
ALB	-5.5%	1.07	0.0	above	TRADE - mean_reversion
AMCR	-5.0%	0.98	0.0	above	TRADE - mean_reversion
INTC	-6.7%	0.67	0.0	above	SKIP - semi sector macro risk + Trump policy uncertainty
MU	-6.6%	1.11	0.0	above	SKIP - semi sector macro risk + NVDA earnings week
TER	-5.2%	0.96	0.0	above	SKIP - semi-adjacent sector risk
DXCM	+6.6%	2.36	83.8	below	SKIP - no identifiable catalyst in news (gap_continuation rule)

Trades planned (3):

Symbol	Strategy	Side	Qty	Entry	Stop	Target	Cost
NEM	mean_reversion	buy	45	109.08	103.83	119.58	4908
ALB	mean_reversion	buy	27	180.42	170.67	199.92	4871
AMCR	mean_reversion	buy	135	36.69	35.34	39.39	4953

Rationale: All three: RSI(2)=0.0 (extreme oversold), above 200SMA (reversion in trend direction), no name-specific adverse catalyst. Stops at 1.5x estimated ATR(14); take-profit at 2R.

Executed trades

(to be filled by open routine)

Mid-day notes

Checked at 12:30 ET. Drawdown 0.45% / 2.00% limit (22.6% used, 77.4% headroom). Not halted. Aggressive-close threshold (1.5%) not reached.

AKAM — hold — up +1.36% ($66), no adverse news, thesis intact.
CPAY — close — fifth consecutive session underwater, morning plan explicitly noted no surviving thesis; close submitted.
DDOG — hold — up +3.57% ($171), strong, thesis intact.
Q — close — deteriorated from −6.5% at open to −11.2% mid-session ($542 unrealized loss); thesis broken; close submitted.
SNDK — close — deteriorated from −2.4% at open to −10.8% mid-session ($471 unrealized loss); thesis broken; close submitted.

v2 TODO: add tighten-stop CLI command so AKAM and DDOG stops can be trailed on favorable moves.

Post-close review

svidday.cli report could not run — CLI approval required (recurring issue). Equity curve row not written. SPY alpha unavailable. Estimates derived from state/positions.json and log files.

Account (EOD est.): Equity ~$99,836 | Net today ~+$133 (morning $99,703 → EOD $99,836) | Cumulative from $100k: −$164.

Today's planned trades — NEM, ALB, AMCR: Not submitted. Open routine found MAX_OPEN_POSITIONS=5 already occupied (AKAM, CPAY, DDOG, Q, SNDK). All three had valid signal (RSI(2)=0.0, above 200SMA, no name-specific catalyst) but were blocked by stale slots, not by any market disqualifier. Verdict: missed opportunity due to position-slot crowding.

Q: Closed mid-day. Deteriorated from −6.5% at open to −11.2% by 12:30 ET; thesis broken. Close was appropriate. Realized loss est. ~−$542. Verdict: correct close, stop held.

SNDK: Closed mid-day. Deteriorated from −2.4% at open to −10.8% by 12:30 ET; thesis broken. Close was appropriate. Realized loss est. ~−$471. Verdict: correct close, stop held.

CPAY: Close "submitted" mid-day (fifth consecutive session with no surviving thesis), but position is still open at EOD — 14 shares, avg entry $343.49, current ~$336.06, unrealized −$104. Recurring close-failure: the CLI permission block prevents close-position from executing autonomously. Verdict: unresolved; carried into sixth session.

AKAM: Held through EOD. Unrealized +$13.20 (+0.27%). Thesis intact. Verdict: hold was correct.

DDOG: Held through EOD. Reversed from +3.57% mid-day to −$48.24 (−1.00%) at close. Thesis weakened by afternoon reversal — trailing stop would have locked in the mid-day gain. Verdict: hold was defensible at mid-day but costly at close; note for v2 tighten-stop feature.

Lessons