Trading journal — 2026-05-15
Morning plan
Account: Equity $99,324.58 · Cash $76,297.95 · 5/8 positions open · paper mode · not halted
Market context: S&P 500 futures pulling back after record highs on Thursday as Trump wraps China summit (Xi lunch meeting). Fear & Greed index 66 (Greed zone). Strong AI/tech sector momentum from prior session; macro risk from export-control uncertainty. Oil above $101.
Open positions alert: CPAY (–4.17%) has been flagged for close two consecutive sessions (2026-05-13 and 2026-05-14) and remains open — open routine must prioritize closing CPAY. SNDK (–6.71%) mini-tender offer at $1,150 (below market); board recommends no action. Q (–4.15%) approaching stop territory.
Ideas considered
Screened 25 gappers against strategies in context/strategies.md. Long-only (v1). QCOM explicitly excluded per learned.md (semi mean-reversion unreliable with AI chip export risk live). Catalysts required for gap_continuation (must name earnings/M&A/guidance/analyst); rel-vol ≥ 1.5x required.
| Symbol | Gap% | Rel-Vol | Above200 | RSI(2) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | +13.38% | 3.11 | ✓ | — | PLAN — Q3 earnings + AI pivot |
| JBHT | +7.06% | 2.24 | ✓ | — | SKIP — no identifiable catalyst |
| APP | +6.98% | 1.00 | ✗ | 45.9 | SKIP — rel-vol < 1.5 |
| TTWO | +6.77% | 2.31 | ✓ | — | SKIP — no identifiable catalyst |
| F | +6.51% | 4.18 | ✓ | — | SKIP — macro trade-deal catalyst only; not earnings/M&A/guidance/analyst |
| BIIB | –6.48% | 2.57 | ✓ | 27.8 | SKIP — gap-down; long-only; RSI(2) not extreme (>5) |
| HPE | +6.36% | 2.99 | ✓ | — | SKIP — no specific catalyst in news |
| APTV | +6.25% | 1.40 | ✗ | 82.1 | SKIP — rel-vol < 1.5 |
| QCOM | –6.20% | 0.86 | ✓ | 17.7 | SKIP — semi mean-reversion flagged in learned.md; below vol threshold |
| CBRE | –5.87% | 1.43 | ✗ | 0.0 | SKIP — below 200SMA; rel-vol < 1.5 |
| AVGO | +5.49% | 0.96 | ✓ | 89.5 | SKIP — rel-vol < 1.5; RSI(2) not extreme |
| JKHY | –5.19% | 2.84 | ✗ | 0.0 | SKIP — below 200SMA (mean-reversion requires above 200SMA) |
| COIN | +5.04% | 1.70 | ✗ | 63.2 | PLAN — Clarity Act catalyst; below 200SMA noted |
| ALB | –5.00% | 0.89 | ✓ | 0.0 | SKIP — rel-vol < 1.5 |
| BA | –4.68% | 2.28 | ✓ | 24.5 | SKIP — gap-down; long-only; RSI(2) not extreme |
| ZBRA | +4.62% | 2.27 | ✗ | — | SKIP — no identifiable catalyst |
Trade plan
| # | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Position$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSCO | gap_continuation | buy | 42 | $115.55 | $112.05 | $122.55 | $4,853 |
| 2 | COIN | gap_continuation | buy | 23 | $211.97 | $203.47 | $228.97 | $4,875 |
CSCO rationale: Q3 earnings beat confirmed pre-market; CEO Chuck Robbins explained 4,000-job "reallocation" as an AI silicon/optics pivot (not a cost-cut). Gap +13.38% on 3.11x rel-vol; above 200SMA. Large gap warrants tightening stop to opening 5-min range low at the open.
COIN rationale: Crypto Clarity Act cleared Senate Banking Committee on bipartisan vote Thursday. Gap +5.04% on 1.70x rel-vol. Regulatory/legislative catalyst clearly named. Note: COIN is below 200SMA — hard stop discipline required if market opens weak.
Risk per trade: CSCO $3.50/share ($147 total) · COIN $8.50/share ($195.50 total) Total new capital at risk: ~$342 (~0.34% of equity) Positions after plan: 7/8
Executed trades
(populated by open routine)
Mid-day notes
Account: Equity $99,836.21 · Daily drawdown 0.164% (8.2% of 2.0% limit used) · $1,836 headroom remaining · not halted · paper mode
Position review (CSCO and COIN not yet visible in positions.json — open routine may have been blocked; no midday action possible on unconfirmed positions):
- AKAM — hold — +$13.20 (+0.27%); thesis intact, no adverse news, within expected range.
- CPAY — CLOSE (manual action required) — –$103.98 (–2.16%); no documented entry rationale; flagged for close on 2026-05-13, 2026-05-14, and again this morning; thesis has never been articulated; position must be closed.
python -m svidday.cli close-position CPAYwas blocked by CLI permission approval — human must run this command manually before post-close routine. - DDOG — hold — –$48.24 (–1.01%); market-wide pullback day; loss within expected range; no specific thesis-break event identified.
Drawdown status: 0.164% of 2.0% daily limit used. Not near the 1.5% aggressive-close threshold.
Recurring blocker: close-position CLI command still requires manual permission approval. CPAY has now been flagged for close on three consecutive sessions and remains open. Pre-authorize & "C:\Users\bobby\venvs\svidday\Scripts\python.exe" in .claude/settings.json to prevent this recurring failure.
Post-close review
Note:
python -m svidday.cli reportwas blocked by CLI permission approval (same recurring issue). Equity data is fromstate/positions.jsonsnapshot (midday).state/equity_curve.csvhas not yet been initialized — cumulative alpha vs SPY is unavailable until the first successfulreportrun.
Account: Last close equity $100,000.00 → midday $99,836.21 · Net P&L approx. –$163.79 (–0.16%) · paper mode
Cumulative alpha vs SPY: Unavailable (equity_curve.csv not yet written).
CSCO — Not submitted. Planned: gap_continuation, 42 shares @ $115.55, stop $112.05, target $122.55. Open routine was blocked by CLI permission approval before order submission. Trade was never entered; outcome is foregone, not a loss.
COIN — Not submitted. Planned: gap_continuation, 23 shares @ $211.97, stop $203.47, target $228.97. Same reason as CSCO — open routine blocked. Note: below-200SMA risk was flagged in the morning plan; hard stop discipline would have been critical.
AKAM — Held. Midday: +$13.20 (+0.27%). Thesis intact; no adverse news; within expected range. No action warranted.
CPAY — Still open. Midday: –$103.98 (–2.16%). Flagged for close on four consecutive sessions (2026-05-13, 05-14, 05-15 morning, and now 05-15 post-close). No documented entry rationale has ever been produced. close-position CPAY blocked by CLI permission every session. Verdict: this position must be closed manually by the human operator before the 2026-05-16 open routine runs.
DDOG — Held. Midday: –$48.24 (–1.01%). Market-wide pullback day; no thesis-break event; loss within expected range. No action warranted.
Q — Not visible in midday positions.json; was described as "approaching stop territory" in morning plan. Likely stopped out at or near the stated stop. Outcome unconfirmable without report.
Strategy validation: Both planned trades today were gap_continuation with named catalysts (CSCO earnings + AI pivot; COIN Clarity Act). Both met screening criteria. The failure was execution infrastructure, not setup quality — particularly notable for CSCO (+13.38% gap on 3.11x rel-vol with earnings confirmation), which under the strategy rules would have been a high-conviction entry.
Lessons
The CLI permission block is symmetrically harmful: it has now prevented both CPAY's overdue exit across four sessions and today's planned entry into CSCO's high-conviction 13% earnings gap — meaning the system is failing to cut losers and failing to enter winners simultaneously.