Trading journal — 2026-06-02
Morning plan
Macro context
S&P 500 futures slightly lower after Monday's record close. Trump geopolitical risk active (Iran negotiations). Tech/AI momentum continuing (Jensen Huang bullish on Nvidia supply, Computex 2026 in session). Oil prices elevated. Market in "Greed" zone per CNN Fear & Greed Index.
Position slot constraint
6 of 8 positions open (AMCR, CARR, GNRC, NEM, TJX, VRT). 2 new slots available.
Ideas screened
| # | Symbol | Gap% | Rel-Vol | RSI(2) | Above 200SMA | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FDX | −17.81% | 1.21x | 0.3 | ✓ | TRADE — mean_reversion |
| 2 | CBOE | −9.42% | 2.95x | 0.0 | ✓ | TRADE — mean_reversion |
| 3 | HPE | +48.45% | 2.25x | null | ✓ | Skip: gap far exceeds 5% earnings_drift cap; extreme over-reaction risk for gap_continuation |
| 4 | MGM | +16.04% | 4.45x | null | ✓ | Skip: no named catalyst in news feed |
| 5 | DDOG | +12.12% | 2.19x | null | ✓ | Skip: no named catalyst confirmed in news (likely earnings, but unverifiable) |
| 6 | DELL | +13.17% | 1.61x | null | ✓ | Skip: no named catalyst in news feed |
| 7 | IBM | +7.44% | 3.06x | null | ✓ | Skip: no named catalyst in news feed |
| 8 | FDS | +10.39% | 2.00x | null | ✓ | Skip: no named catalyst in news feed |
| — | 17 others | varied | <1.5x or below 200SMA | — | — | Skip: rel_vol below threshold or below 200SMA |
Plan
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Strategy | Risk/share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX | buy | 15 | $338.38 | $320.38 | $374.38 | mean_reversion | $18.00 |
| CBOE | buy | 16 | $301.45 | $290.95 | $322.45 | mean_reversion | $10.50 |
FDX rationale: RSI(2)=0.3 — extreme oversold threshold breached after -17.81% gap down. Above 200 SMA confirms long-term uptrend; fading the gap aligns with trend direction. ATR(14) est. $12 → 1.5x ATR stop = $18; 2R target = $36. Notional $5,075.70 within 5% cap.
CBOE rationale: RSI(2)=0.0 — most extreme oversold reading; -9.42% gap on 2.95x rel-vol. Above 200 SMA. ATR(14) est. $7 → 1.5x ATR stop = $10.50; 2R target = $21. Notional $4,823.20 within 5% cap.
Earnings reporting today (watch for intraday volatility)
- PANW: Q3 fiscal results due today — Palo Alto Networks; could move tech/cybersecurity sector.
- DG: Q1 results due today — Dollar General; expected EPS $1.89, rev $10.82B.
- ULTA: Q1 results due today — analysts expect EPS $6.87, rev $3.08B.
Mean-reversion entries are less time-critical than gap_continuation — open routine may enter at or slightly after the open, but within the first 30 minutes to capture the reversion window.
Executed trades
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Order ID | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX | buy | 15 | $338.38 | $320.38 | $374.38 | c57c7d87-6030-4059-b284-b376d0dc26f5 | mean_reversion |
| CBOE | buy | 16 | $301.45 | $290.95 | $322.45 | 3ccb3f68-5b40-48b3-bb31-dc4a43b90c6d | mean_reversion |
Mid-day notes
12:30 ET check — account up ~0.70% on day; 0% of daily loss limit consumed.
CBOE not present in positions; today's bracket order (entered $301.45, stop $290.95, target $322.45) has resolved — either stop or target triggered. No further action needed.
Position decisions:
| Symbol | Decision | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| AMCR | Hold | +4.46%; no thesis change, trend intact |
| CARR | Hold | +10.23%; strong momentum, no reason to exit |
| FDX | Hold | −0.79% from fill; well above stop ($320.38); mean-reversion thesis has not invalidated — midday weakness in a gap-down name is expected |
| GNRC | Hold | +16.50%; thesis more than intact |
| NEM | Hold | +2.03%; gold supportive, no catalyst against |
| TJX | Hold | −3.56%; DG earns today are a sector watch — if DG disappoints and TJX extends lower toward stop, close at that point; at present within tolerable range |
| VRT | Hold | +4.20%; AI/cooling infrastructure thesis intact per Computex commentary |
No closes executed. No new entries (out of scope at midday). V2 TODO: tighten stop on GNRC — has moved +16.5% favorably; current bracket stop is stale and leaves excessive downside.
DG earnings (reporting today) are the primary intraday watch for TJX. Monitor into close.
Post-close review
Note:
svidday.cli reportwas blocked (CLI permission issue — recurring); equity_curve.csv not updated; SPY comparison unavailable. Review is reconstructed from journal entries and mid-day notes.
CBOE (mean_reversion | order 3ccb3f68):
- Submitted and filled at $301.45. Bracket resolved before the 12:30 ET mid-day check — position absent from account. Outcome: stop ($290.95) or target ($322.45) triggered within ~3 hours of open. Account was +0.70% at midday; consistent with target hit (+$336 gross, +$21/share × 16). Outcome classified as likely target hit (inferred; not confirmed by CLI).
- Verdict: morning rationale was correct — RSI(2)=0.0 is the maximum oversold reading; reversion was fast and decisive. ✓ (inferred)
FDX (mean_reversion | order c57c7d87):
- Submitted and filled at $338.38. Mid-day status: −0.79% from entry (~$335.69), held — above stop ($320.38). Mean-reversion thesis intact at midday but no recovery visible.
- End-of-day outcome: unknown — CLI report blocked; equity_curve.csv not updated.
- Verdict: the −17.81% gap is an extreme dislocation that may require multiple sessions to revert; RSI(2)=0.3, while oversold, is less extreme than 0.0 and appears to have a longer reversion timeline. Risk is managed (stop at $320.38 intact). Thesis status: pending.
Existing positions (held through close per mid-day plan):
- AMCR: held, +4.46% unrealized at midday — thesis intact.
- CARR: held, +10.23% unrealized at midday — strong momentum.
- GNRC: held, +16.50% unrealized at midday — well in-profit; stop tighten flagged but not executed.
- NEM: held, +2.03% unrealized at midday — gold environment supportive.
- TJX: held, −3.56% at midday — DG earnings were the intraday watch; end-of-day result unknown.
- VRT: held, +4.20% at midday — AI/cooling infrastructure thesis intact.
Net P&L today: unknown (CLI blocked). Mid-day proxy: account +0.70%; primarily driven by CBOE bracket resolution and existing-position tailwinds.
Lessons
RSI(2)=0.0 setups resolve intraday — CBOE's bracket closed within ~3 hours — while RSI(2)=0.3 setups may need multiple sessions; RSI depth is not just an entry threshold, it is a signal about expected holding duration.