Trading journal — 2026-05-12
Morning plan
Account: $100,000 equity · 0 open positions · paper mode · not halted
Market context: S&P 500 closed above 7,400 yesterday (+2.3%), Nasdaq +4.5%. Broad AI/semiconductor sector strength. Iran uncertainty keeps macro risk elevated per Polymarket.
Ideas considered
Screened all 25 gappers from the brief against the three strategies in context/strategies.md. Long-only (v1). Catalysts required for gap_continuation.
| Symbol | Gap% | Rel-Vol | Above200 | RSI(2) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | +16.6% | 1.54 | ✓ | — | SKIP — no identifiable catalyst |
| COHR | +13.3% | 1.20 | ✓ | — | SKIP — rel-vol < 1.5 |
| GLW | +10.9% | 1.51 | ✓ | — | SKIP — no identifiable catalyst |
| QCOM | +8.4% | 1.84 | ✓ | — | SKIP — no identifiable catalyst |
| FOX | +8.1% | 2.04 | ✓ | — | SKIP — no named company-specific catalyst |
| FOXA | +7.6% | 2.74 | ✓ | — | SKIP — no named company-specific catalyst |
| STX | +6.6% | 2.74 | ✓ | — | SKIP — no identifiable catalyst |
| MU | +6.1% | 1.87 | ✓ | — | PLAN — analyst target, see below |
| FSLR | +6.0% | 1.90 | ✓ | — | SKIP — no identifiable catalyst |
| VRT | +8.3% | 1.05 | ✓ | 99.3 | SKIP — overbought; long-only |
| DG | -7.6% | 2.38 | ✗ | 0.0 | SKIP — below 200SMA |
| ZTS | -7.5% | 2.62 | ✗ | 0.0 | SKIP — below 200SMA |
| ISRG | -6.7% | 1.73 | ✗ | 0.0 | SKIP — below 200SMA |
| TGT | -5.4% | 1.27 | ✓ | 0.0 | PLAN — mean reversion, see below |
| DELL | -5.1% | 1.70 | ✓ | 69.3 | SKIP — RSI(2) not extreme (need < 5 or > 95) |
| Q | — | — | — | — | SKIP — earnings beat but not in gappers list (no gap_pct/rel_volume) |
Note: all negative-gap candidates with RSI(2)=0.0 (DG, ZTS, ISRG, TTD, CRL) had above_200sma=false, disqualifying them from mean-reversion long. Short-selling is out of scope in v1.
Trade plan
| # | Symbol | Strategy | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Position$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MU | gap_continuation | buy | 6 | 792.50 | 768.50 | 840.50 | $4,755 |
| 2 | TGT | mean_reversion | buy | 42 | 118.47 | 114.72 | 125.97 | $4,976 |
MU rationale: Ross Gerber published a $1,140 price target at 5:12 AM pre-market (benzinga), citing AI-driven EPS expansion through 2027. Gap +6.1% on 1.87× rel-vol; above 200SMA. Stop = entry − 1.5×ATR(est $24); target = 2R.
TGT rationale: RSI(2)=0.0 (extreme oversold); above 200SMA. No confirmed negative catalyst visible in today's news feed — gap likely reflects institutional selling on guidance/comp data but longer-term trend supports bounce. Stop = 1.5×ATR(est $3.75) below entry; target = 2R or 5-day SMA, whichever first.
Risk per trade: MU $24/share ($144 total) · TGT $3.75/share ($157.50 total) Total capital at risk: ~$301 (~0.3% of equity)
Executed trades
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | Target | Alpaca Order ID | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | buy | 6 | 792.50 | 768.50 | 840.50 | 7d37357c-5653-42b6-a0ba-b7f7124b982b | gap_continuation |
| TGT | buy | 42 | 118.47 | 114.72 | 125.97 | eb55e96b-5499-4540-9a6b-c98bb3290d0f | mean_reversion |
Mid-day notes
Run time: 12:30 PM ET · Mode: paper · Halted: no
Account: equity $99,836.21 · daily drawdown 0.164% of 2.0% limit (91.8% headroom — well below 75% aggressive-action threshold)
Note: Positions in state differ from today's morning plan (which planned MU and TGT). Active positions are AKAM, CPAY, DDOG — no rationale documented for these in today's journal; appear to be pre-existing carry-over positions.
Position review:
| Symbol | P&L | Decision | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKAM | +$13.20 (+0.27%) | Hold | Slight gain; no deterioration |
| CPAY | -$103.98 (-2.16%) | Close (attempted) | Worst performer; no documented thesis in today's plan; -2.16% stock decline with unknown stop level |
| DDOG | -$48.24 (-1.01%) | Hold | Within expected range; drawdown headroom ample |
Close action: python -m svidday.cli close-position CPAY — blocked pending user permission approval. Manual execution required.
Stop-tighten TODO (v2): AKAM has moved favorably; tighten trailing stop when CLI supports it.
Post-close review
Today's planned trades — neither filled.
| Symbol | Strategy | Status | P&L | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | gap_continuation | UNFILLED | $0 | Limit at $792.50 submitted 9:31 AM ET (order ID 7d37357c, PENDING_NEW). Absent from 12:30 PM positions snapshot; not in EOD positions. On a broad AI/semiconductor rally day, MU likely moved through the entry level before the bracket order was accepted, leaving the limit untouched. Catalyst (Ross Gerber PT upgrade) was valid. Execution gap, not strategy failure. |
| TGT | mean_reversion | UNFILLED | $0 | Limit at $118.47 submitted 9:31 AM ET (order ID eb55e96b, PENDING_NEW). Absent from 12:30 PM snapshot. On a strongly positive tape (S&P +2.3%), TGT's oversold gap-down likely recovered past the entry limit before the order activated. RSI(2)=0.0 setup remains valid in isolation; missed by execution. |
Carry-over positions (opened 2026-05-11, still open at EOD):
| Symbol | Actual fill | Stop | Target | EOD unrealized | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKAM | $147.67 | $141.78 | $159.78 | +$13.20 (+0.27%) | Hold. Above entry, stop intact, no thesis deterioration. |
| CPAY | $343.49 | $330.62 | $371.12 | −$103.98 (−2.16%) | Should have closed mid-day. No documented thesis in today's plan; midday routine correctly flagged it for closure, but the close-position command was blocked by a permission prompt and never executed. Carrying into 2026-05-13 with the stop at $330.62 as the only protection. |
| DDOG | $200.00 | $188.23 | $224.23 | −$48.24 (−1.01%) | Hold. Within expected range, stop intact, drawdown headroom ample. |
Net P&L (midday snapshot; EOD Alpaca data unavailable — report CLI blocked):
- Unrealized: −$139.02 (AKAM +$13.20 · CPAY −$103.98 · DDOG −$48.24)
- Realized: $0.00 (MU and TGT unfilled; no bracket legs triggered)
- Account equity: $99,836.21 (−$163.79 vs $100,000.00 opening; ~$25 gap attributable to entry-price vs actual-fill slippage on the 05-11 positions)
- Equity curve row NOT written.
python -m svidday.cli reportcould not execute: the venv Python path (C:\Users\bobby\venvs\svidday\Scripts\python.exe) did not match the allowlist pattern (C:/Users/bobby/venvs/svidday/Scripts/python.exe *) due to backslash vs forward-slash mismatch in the permission evaluator. Fix: update the allowlist to include the backslash form, or fix the evaluator. Manual re-run ofreportrequired to write today's equity curve row. - Cumulative alpha vs SPY: N/A — first equity curve row not yet written.
Lessons
Both today's bracket limit orders (MU, TGT) went entirely unfilled because the open routine records submission status rather than confirmed fill status, leaving the journal's "Executed trades" section disconnected from actual portfolio exposure until fill confirmation is added.